会, 要, 打算 — picking the right 'will'
Mandarin has no future tense, but it has three small words that do the work English's 'will / going to / plan to' does — and each carries a different shade. 会 huì = will (likely / predicted) — a probability claim about the future. 要 yào = will / going to / want to — a strong intention or transactional plan. 打算 dǎsuàn = plan to — a deliberate, considered intention. You met 会 in lesson 13 (skill + likelihood) and 要 in lesson 10 ('want / firm'). This lesson is the pragmatic split: when do native speakers use which? And the negation trap is real — 要 does NOT negate to 不要 in this sense; it negates to 不想 (or you recast with 不会).
会 — prediction / likelihood
会 before a verb says 'this will / is likely to happen'. It's a forecast. 明天会下雨。 = It'll rain tomorrow. 我明天会来。 = I'll come tomorrow (I'm telling you my plan as a likely event). 她不会来。 = She won't come. Use 会 for: weather, predictions, polite future commitments, things outside your direct control. It's the closest fit to English 'will' as a probability statement. Negation is clean: 不会. Note that 会 keeps its lesson-13 skill meaning too — context disambiguates: 我会说中文 (I can speak Chinese — skill) vs. 我明天会说中文 (I'll be speaking Chinese tomorrow — future).
要 — strong intention / transactional
要 + verb is the firmer 'I'm going to'. 我要去北京。 = I'm going to Beijing (it's settled, tickets booked, decision made). 明天我要见朋友。 = I'm meeting a friend tomorrow. 要 also recaptures the lesson-10 'want / asking for' meaning, so it's the right verb for transactional futures (ordering, asking, deciding). The line between 会 and 要: 会 is a forecast ('it'll probably happen'); 要 is a commitment ('I've decided / I'm doing it'). 'I'll come tomorrow' could be either depending on certainty: 我明天会来 (probable) vs. 我明天要来 (I will, definitely).
打算 — plan to (the deliberate one)
打算 dǎsuàn literally = 'strike-calculate', and it carries that 'I've thought about it' weight. 我打算下个月去日本。 = I plan to go to Japan next month. 她打算学医。 = She plans to study medicine. 你打算做什么? = What do you plan to do? Use it for considered, not-yet-acted-on intentions. It's slightly more formal than 要 and less of a forecast than 会. As a noun: 我没有打算 = I don't have a plan. Negation: 不打算 = don't plan to. 我不打算去 = I don't plan to go (a deliberate non-intention).
Negation — the 不要 trap
Here's where learners trip. 会 → 不会 (won't): 她不会来。 = She won't come. 打算 → 不打算 (don't plan to): 我不打算去。 要 is the trap. 不要 + verb does NOT mean 'won't / not going to' — it means 'don't!' as a command (不要看! = don't look!, lesson 10). To say 'I'm not going to do X', you SWITCH verbs. Either: 不想 + verb (I don't want to / don't feel like): 我不想去北京。 = I'm not going to Beijing / I don't want to. Or 不会 + verb for a forecast: 我不会去北京。 = I won't go to Beijing. NEVER 我不要去北京 if you mean 'I'm not going' — that reads as a refusal command.
Recap: 想 vs. 要 vs. 会 vs. 打算 — the four-way grid
From lesson 10: 想 = soft 'would like' (a wish). From this lesson: 要 = firm 'going to' (a decision). 会 = forecast 'will' (a prediction). 打算 = considered 'plan to' (a thought-out intention). 'I'd like to go to China' = 我想去中国 (wish). 'I'm going to China' = 我要去中国 (decided). 'I'll probably go to China' = 我会去中国 (forecast). 'I plan to go to China next year' = 我打算明年去中国 (planned). All four are correct Mandarin; English collapses them. To negate cleanly: 不想 / 不会 / 不打算 — and avoid 不要 unless you mean 'don't!'.
